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Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
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Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 71.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among running backs.He has received 62.9% of New Orleans's carries this year -- #10 percentile when it comes to running backs.New Orleans has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 42.6% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL), and they project to run 42.6% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 47.3% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 11.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #23 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Kamara has been the #7-leading rusher this season, tallying 71 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Kamara is projected for -19.4% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.New Orleans is a 11.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ranked #2 against the run this year, holding opponents to 87 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense has allowed 4.28 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#9-least in football).Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Buccaneers safeties have ranked #7 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked box 18.3% of the time this season -- #6-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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The New Orleans Saints offensive line has ranked #15 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.The New Orleans Saints have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Saints project to run 62.2 total plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 51.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.96 and with a negative ROI of -3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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