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Alex Collins Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Washington Football Team vs Seattle Seahawks
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Alex Collins Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Collins has been the #37-leading rusher this season, tallying 42 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 43.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #68 percentile among running backs.He has received 48.7% of Seattle's carries this year -- #27 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Collins is projected for 10.3% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #86 percentile among running backs.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Seahawks project to run 63.8 total plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked box 8.8% of the time this season -- #28-most in football.
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CONS:
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The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has ranked #29 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Seattle has played in the #10-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Washington Football Team have ranked #9 against the run this year, holding opponents to 102 yards per game on the ground.WFT defensive ends have ranked #1 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This offense runs the ball 37.6% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.6% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 41.8% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.In terms of efficiency, Washington's defense has allowed 4.45 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#17-least in football).WFT defensive tackles have ranked #17 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.WFT linebackers have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.WFT safeties have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Washington Football Team have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 12.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #22 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 65.8 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.48. It's return on investment would yeild 10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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