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A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
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A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has received 43.5% of Green Bay's carries this year -- #33 percentile when it comes to running backs.Green Bay is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Browns defensive tackles have ranked #24 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The Green Bay Packers offensive line has ranked #23 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Packers project to run 60.5 total plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.This offense runs the ball 35.1% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.1% of the time in this contest.The Cleveland Browns have ranked #9 against the run this year, holding opponents to 104 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Cleveland's defense has allowed 4.14 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#8-least in football).Browns defensive ends have ranked #8 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Browns linebackers have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Dillon has been the #32-leading rusher this season, tallying 45 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 41.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #64 percentile among running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Dillon is projected for 3.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Green Bay has played in the #13-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offenses projects to runs 38.7% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Browns safeties have ranked #12 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Green Bay Packers have faced a stacked box 14.6% of the time this season -- #15-most in football.The Cleveland Browns have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 13.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #20 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 53.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$0.71 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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