My Account Log Out
Adam Humphries

Adam Humphries Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
Adam Humphries Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 21.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.
  • Humphries has been in the #90 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 78.1% completion rate.
  • Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Dallas's defense has allowed 184 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#3-most in football).
  • The WFT project to run 65.1 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.
  • Washington is a 6.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Humphries's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • The Cowboys have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 59.0% of their targets this season, (#30-most in the league).
  • The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The WFT offensive line has given the QB 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#31-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington has faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.3%).

  • Humphries has been on the field for 57.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #59 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 68.2% of Washington's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #61 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 10.0% -- #52 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Humphries is projected for -0.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.85 yards per target this season, ranking in the #65 percentile.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #14-most yards per target (8.51) against the Cowboys this season.
  • Dallas Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.
  • Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.
  • This offense passes the ball 59.4% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.4% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 21.7 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 51.4% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$6.85 and with a negative ROI of -6%.

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™