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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 261.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 262.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 261.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Rodgers has passed for 277 yards per game this year, #8-best in the league.He's been the #3-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.3% clip.Efficiency-wise, Rodgers has been #2 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.15 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 64.9% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).Aaron Rodgers's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Cleveland's safeties grade out as the #23-best in pass coverage this year.Browns defensive tackles have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Browns linebackers have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Packers project to run 60.5 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.Green Bay is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The Cleveland Browns enter this game with the #10-best pass defense this season, allowing 238 yards per game through the air.Cleveland's cornerbacks grade out as the #5-best in pass coverage this year.Cleveland's linebackers grade out as the #2-best in pass coverage this year.Browns defensive ends have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Green Bay has played in the #13-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This offenses projects to pass 61.3% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Packers offensive line has given Aaron Rodgers 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-best in football).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay have faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).The Browns have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.3% of their targets, ranking #19-best in the NFL.The Cleveland Browns defense ranks #16-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.62.The Cleveland Browns have stacked the box on 13.2% of their plays this season, #20-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Rodgers putting up 249.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $1.66. Its return on investment would yield +1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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