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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 261.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 262.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 261.5 @ -115.
  • Rodgers has passed for 277 yards per game this year, #8-best in the league.
  • He's been the #3-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.3% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Rodgers has been #2 in the NFL this season, averaging 8.15 yards per target.
  • This offense passes the ball 64.9% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).
  • Aaron Rodgers's offensive line has been #11 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Cleveland's safeties grade out as the #23-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Browns defensive tackles have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Browns linebackers have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Packers project to run 60.5 plays in this contest, the #30-most of the week.
  • Green Bay is a 7.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Cleveland Browns enter this game with the #10-best pass defense this season, allowing 238 yards per game through the air.
  • Cleveland's cornerbacks grade out as the #5-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Cleveland's linebackers grade out as the #2-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Browns defensive ends have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • Green Bay has played in the #13-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.3% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Packers offensive line has given Aaron Rodgers 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-best in football).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay have faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.6%).
  • The Browns have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.3% of their targets, ranking #19-best in the NFL.
  • The Cleveland Browns defense ranks #16-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.62.
  • The Cleveland Browns have stacked the box on 13.2% of their plays this season, #20-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

    THE BLITZ sees Rodgers putting up 249.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.7% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $1.66. Its return on investment would yield +1%.

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