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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 254.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 262.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 254.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Rodgers has passed for 265 yards per game this year, #9-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Rodgers has been #6 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.82 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 64.1% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL).The Chicago Bears have had the #30-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bears defensive ends have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Green Bay Packers have had the #32-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Green Bay is a 12.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.The Chicago Bears enter this game with the #7-best pass defense this season, allowing 229 yards per game through the air.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #14-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.0% clip.Green Bay has played in the #11-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Packers project to run 60.8 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 57.7% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Aaron Rodgers's offensive line has been #15 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Packers offensive line has given Aaron Rodgers 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Green Bay Packers have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Green Bay have faced the #15-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#14.6%).The Bears have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.4% of their targets, ranking #11 in the NFL.Chicago's defense has been #21-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.98 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Chicago Bears have had the #19-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Chicago Bears have had the #16-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Bears defensive tackles have ranked #21 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Bears linebackers have ranked #11 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Chicago Bears have stacked the box on 14.7% of their plays this season, #16-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 246.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.94 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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