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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts - Week 12

 
 
 
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TB IND
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

This week's game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts has shootout potential written all over it. Both teams arrive on the shoulders of elite offenses, with the Buccaneers ranking #1 in the NFL in yards per game at 434 and the Colts checking in at #10 with 376 yards per game. As a result of these high-powered offenses, the current Game Total on this game is 53.0.
 
The Buccaneers biggest strength has definitely been their pass game. They've attempted a pass on 72.3% of their plays this year, #1-most in the football. They've averaged 333 yards per game through the air, ranking #1-best in the NFL. They've been helped by a great offensive line, which ranks #10 in the league in pass-blocking. Perhaps because of their pass game, they've also averaged 4.91 yards per carry on the ground, #6-best in the league. They've made some good analytical decisions, ranking #5 in the NFL in misdirection rate. Giving the defense trick look can confuse them and ultimately lead to more offensive success.

The Colts have leaned on their run game in finding their success. They've averaged 162 yards per game on the ground, ranking #1 in the NFL. They've been helped by a great offensive line, which ranks #6 in the league in opening up holes for the running backs. They've made some good analytical decisions, ranking #5 in the NFL in play action rate. Play action gets the defense biting on a run, leaving receivers open more often for a pass.
 
Photo by Jasen Vinlove - USA Today Sports
 
 
The Colts have won 3 consecutive games, while the Buccaneers have won 1 in a row. The Buccaneers played last Monday and thus will be on 6 days rest, which is shorter then normal. A short week between games does not help a team, so this may slightly enhance the Colts home field advantage this week. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 14 in 2019. That game resulted in a home win for the Colts with a final score of 25-12. This will be the 3rd consecutive home game for the Colts. Not having to travel should bode well for the Colts, and this could slightly upgrade their home field advantage.
 
This matchup has the #1 highest Game Total this week. Large Totals imply there will be a lot of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lot of offensive yards. The betting handle for this Game Total is notable, because there is lopsided action. The vast majority of the Bets and Cash have been on the Over. The Over has approximately 73% of the bets and 76% of the cash wagered. It's very likely the Sportsbook will have liability on this Game Total and will be rooting for the Under. Compared to all the other game action this week, the Over has the highest percentage of cash this week.
 
PROJECTION:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 28.93
Indianapolis Colts - 24.32

Win Probability:
TB 66% / IND 34%
 
 
 
 
 
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