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San Francisco 49ers (6-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
Cincinnati's primary disadvantage has been their pass defense, which has allowed a monstrous 273 yards per game through the air this year, sliding them into the #7 spot among the league's worst. Opposing running backs have given the Bengals the most trouble, posting 55 yards per game against this defense (#4-worst in football). Cincinnati's linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #2-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Cincinnati given that the 49ers air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 7.82 yards per target (#3-best in the league).
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When it comes to their offense, the Bengals check in at #20 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 242 yards per game (#15 in football). Their run game has ranked #25 with 4.15 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting tight ends, who have completed 79.6% of those targets this year (#2-best in the league).
San Francisco's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #8 in the league while allowing just 344 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #6-least yards per game: 229. The 49ers have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 35 yards per game (#3-best). San Francisco's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #2 in the league in locking down route-runners. San Francisco's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive ends, which check in as the #5-best unit in terms of getting to the passer.
In terms of their offense, the 49ers have ranked #15 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 233 yards per game (#20 in football). On the ground they've ranked #13 with 4.56 yards per carry. They've been most efficient throwing to tight ends, who have racked up 9.99 yards per target (ranking #2).
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The visiting 49ers will have to travel cross-country for this game. They will travel over ~2021 miles and across 3 time zones to get to Cincinnati. Historically, cross-country road trips have an adverse effect on the visiting team, so it's possible the 49ers and may have to battle jet lag or a disruption to their normal weekly routine. The long travel should help Cincinnati's home field advantage. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The road 49ers won by double digits, crushing the Bengals 41-17 in Week 2 of 2019.
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This matchup has the #3 highest Game Total this week. Large Totals imply there will be a lot of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lot of offensive yards. There has been some line movement on the Game Total toward the Over. It opened 47.0 before it was bet up to 49.5. The majority of the bets are on the Over with 58% of the bets and 52% of the cash.
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PROJECTION:
San Francisco 49ers - 22.79
Cincinnati Bengals - 22.05
Win Probability:
SF 52% / CIN 48%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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