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Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets - Week 13

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PHI		NYJ

Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) at New York Jets (3-8)

Week 13's contest between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Jets pairs one team's greatest strength with the other's weakness. The Eagles run game has been one of the best in the league, ranking #2 while averaging 157 yards per game. And not just total yards, but their efficiency has also been strong at 5.32 yards per carry (#2-best in football).

While most think of the running back as the most important piece of a strong ground attack, it's actually the offensive line that is most responsible, making blocks and opening up space for the running back to work in. That's been true of the Eagles, whose offensive line ranks #9-best in the NFL. A big part of the Eagles rushing success has been their quarterback's involvement. Quarterbacks average nearly 2 extra yards per carry over running backs, and so having a mobile QB can be a huge advantage. Roughly 27.9% of the Eagles rush attempts have come through their quarterback, #2-most in the league.

Philadelphia has leaned on the run 44.9% of the time, #1-most in football. The Eagles have leaned heavily on the run in the red zone as they attempt to punch it for touchdowns, #3-most in football at 60.9%. It seems like it would make sense to continue leaning on it this week given how ill-equipped the Jets have been to stop the opposing run threat this year. To wit, the Jets rush defense has allowed 140 yards per game, #2-worst in the league. This should give Philadelphia a decided advantage.

If the Jets are going to come out on top, they'll likely need to figure out a way to slow Philadelphia down on the ground. That's not going to be easy given how much they've struggled in that department this season.

The last time these two teams played each other was Week 5 in 2019. That game resulted in a road win for the Eagles with a final score of 24-17. This will be the 3rd consecutive road game for the Eagles. The extra travel won't help the Eagles, and this could slightly upgrade the Jets home field advantage.

PROJECTION:
Philadelphia Eagles - 25.64
New York Jets - 17.80

Win Probability:
PHI 76% / NYJ 24%

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