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Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers - Week 12

 
 
 
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Los Angeles Rams (7-3) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)

Green Bay's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 340 yards per game -- #8-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #8-least yards per game: 232. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 57.2% completion rate (#1-stingiest in football). Green Bay's best coverage unit has been their linebackers, which grade out as the #4 unit in the NFL in this regard. Green Bay's pass rush has been led by their defensive tackles who, ranking as the #6 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits.
 
When it comes to their offense, the Packers check in at #15 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 254 yards per game (#12 in football). Their run game has ranked #15 with 4.49 yards per attempt on the ground. They hit their peak effectiveness when targeting running backs, who have accrued 7.44 yards per target (#4-best in the league).

Los Angeles's biggest strength has been their offense, ranking #9 in the league with 385 yards per game. They've achieved offensive success largely through the quality of their passing attack, which is #5-best in football with 282 yards per game. It's no wonder they've done so well through the air when their offensive line ranks #2 in the league in pass protection. Their wide receivers have been particularly effective, racking up 247 yards per game (ranking #1).

In terms of their defense, the Rams have ranked #12 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 258 yards per game through the air against them (#17 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #5 with 4.15 yards per carry. Los Angeles has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 7.67 yards per target (#7-best). Los Angeles has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 64 yards per game (#4-worst).
 
Photo by Dylan Buell - Getty Images
 
 
The Packers are undefeated at home after winning 4 consecutive home games, and this game will be played in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field. This stadium has a capacity of 81441 fans and is the #3 largest stadium in the NFL. The large crowd can make it extremely loud for opposing teams, which makes Green Bay one of the more difficult road environments in the NFL. This is likely one of the reasons why the Packers have done well at home this year. The Rams are coming off a bye and will have had 13 days rest, which is longer then normal. The extra time should help the Rams get healthier and prepare for the game. This may slightly downgrade the Packers home field advantage this week. The visiting Rams will have to travel over ~1764 miles and across 2 time zones to get to Green Bay. Historically, long road trips have an adverse effect on the visiting team, so it's possible the Rams and may have to battle jet lag or a disruption to their normal weekly routine. The long travel should help Green Bay's home field advantage. The last time these two teams played each other was Week 19 in 2020. That game resulted in a home win for the Packers with a final score of 32-18.
 
Sizable line movement toward the Under has shifted the Game Total. It opened 50.0 before it was bet down to 46.5. The Over has approximately 80% of the bets, but only 44% of the cash. Compared to all the other game action this week, the Over has the highest percentage of bets this week.
 
PROJECTION:
Los Angeles Rams - 22.00
Green Bay Packers - 21.48

Win Probability:
LA 51% / GB 49%
 
 
 
 
 
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