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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) at Tennessee Titans (8-4)
Week 14's contest between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans pairs one team's greatest strength with the other's weakness. The Titans run game has been one of the best in the league, ranking #3 while averaging 146 yards per game. And not just total yards, but their efficiency has also been strong at 4.79 yards per carry (#8-best in football). Even with teams stacking the box (i.e. putting at least one safety or extra defensive player close to the line of scrimmage) against them 22.7% of the time, they have still managed to thrive.
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While most think of the running back as the most important piece of a strong ground attack, it's actually the offensive line that is most responsible, making blocks and opening up space for the running back to work in. That's been true of the Titans, whose offensive line ranks #5-best in the NFL. A big part of the Titans rushing success has been their quarterback's involvement.
Tennessee has leaned on the run 44.4% of the time, #2-most in football. This should give Tennessee a decided advantage.
If the Jaguars are going to come out on top, they'll likely need to figure out a way to slow Tennessee down on the ground. That's not going to be easy given how much they've struggled in that department this season.
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The Jaguars are winless on the road after losing 5 straight road games, while the Titans are 4-2 at home. The Titans are coming off a bye and will have had 14 days rest, which is longer then normal. The extra time should help the Titans get healthier and prepare for the game. This may enhance their home field advantage this week. These two teams are divisional rivals. This rivalry should add extra significance to the game, and both teams are likely to be ultra motivated. The last time these two teams played produced a game with a lot of points. Their Week 5 of 2021 contest produced a lot of points, as the Titans pulled off the home win 33-30. This will be a back-to-back road game for the Jaguars. The extra travel won't help the Jaguars, and this could slightly upgrade the Titans home field advantage.
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There has been some line movement on the Game Total toward the Under. It opened 46.5 before it was bet down to 44.0. The Over has approximately 52% of the bets, but only 25% of the cash.
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PROJECTION:
Tennessee Titans - 24.27
Jacksonville Jaguars - 18.17
Win Probability:
TEN 70% / JAX 30%
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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