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Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Week 14

 
 
 
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BUF TB
Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3)

This week's game between the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers has shootout potential written all over it. Both teams arrive on the shoulders of elite offenses, with the Bills ranking #5 in the NFL in yards per game at 398 and the Buccaneers checking in at #1 with 432 yards per game. As a result of these high-powered offenses, the current Game Total on this game is 53.0.
 
The Bills biggest strength has definitely been their pass game. They've attempted a pass on 68.0% of their plays this year, #4-most in the football. They've averaged 277 yards per game through the air, ranking #7-best in the NFL. Perhaps because of their pass game, they've also averaged 4.96 yards per carry on the ground, #5-best in the league. They've made some good analytical decisions, ranking #4 in the NFL in play action rate. Play action gets the defense biting on a run, leaving receivers open more often for a pass.

The Buccaneers biggest strength has definitely been their pass game. They've attempted a pass on 72.2% of their plays this year, #1-most in the football. They've averaged 330 yards per game through the air, ranking #1-best in the NFL. They've been helped by a great offensive line, which ranks #10 in the league in pass-blocking. Their offensive line has given their quarterback 2.40 seconds before getting pressured, #7-best in football. Perhaps because of their pass game, they've also averaged 5.01 yards per carry on the ground, #4-best in the league. They've made some good analytical decisions, ranking #6 in the NFL in misdirection rate. Giving the defense trick look can confuse them and ultimately lead to more offensive success.
 
Photo by Vaughn Ridley - Getty Images
 
 
The Buccaneers are undefeated at home after winning 5 consecutive home games, while the Bills are 4-2 on the road. The Bills played last Monday and thus will be on 6 days rest, which is shorter then normal. A short week between games does not help a team, so this may slightly enhance the Buccaneers home field advantage this week.
 
This matchup has the #1 highest Game Total this week. Large Totals imply there will be a lot of scoring opportunities and also correlates to a lot of offensive yards. The betting handle for this Game Total is notable, because there is lopsided action. The vast majority of the Bets and Cash have been on the Over. The Over has approximately 75% of the bets and 76% of the cash wagered. It's very likely the Sportsbook will have liability on this Game Total and will be rooting for the Under. The Over has the highest percentage of bets this week and also the highest percentage of cash.
 
PROJECTION:
Buffalo Bills - 26.45
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 25.83

Win Probability:
BUF 51% / TB 49%
 
 
 
 
 
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