Xavier Tillman Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/15/2023

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 15, 2023

Updated Mar 15, 2023 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+110/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has compiled 1.3 offensive rebounds per game this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile -- among the league leaders by this metric in recent days.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Xavier Tillman has averaged 13.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the least-used players in the league: 24th percentile.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Grizzlies.
Xavier Tillman will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage generally lowers stat production for all stats.

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