Xavier Tillman Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2023

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Rebounds

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 13, 2023

Updated Mar 13, 2023 9:56 PM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has totaled 1.3 offensive rebounds per game this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile -- among the NBA's hottest by this metric in recent games.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Mavericks have allowed the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Xavier Tillman has played 13.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the least-used players in the league: 24th percentile.
The Mavericks have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Grizzlies.
Xavier Tillman will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road usually reduces player production across the board.

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