Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2025

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Boston Celtics

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Boston Celtics · Mar 31, 2025

Updated Apr 1, 2025 2:34 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Grizzlies have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which should increase plays for the Celtics.
The Celtics check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies is a favorable one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 4.6 foul shots per game this year (5th-most in the league).

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 46.7% rate, Xavier Tillman's field goal performance has regressed this year to 22.1%.
Compared to last season's 27.1% clip, Xavier Tillman's three-point effectiveness has been reduced this season to 12.5%.
Xavier Tillman has been on the court for 7.1 minutes per game this year, riding the bench far more than most players in the NBA: 9th percentile.
The matchup vs. Memphis is a hard one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Memphis Grizzlies have the home court advantage, opposing starting PFs have totaled the 2nd-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (3.0).
The slowest tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Boston Celtics.

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