Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2024

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors · Jan 3, 2024

Updated Jan 4, 2024 1:59 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-133/+103).

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to 3-point attempts, the 5th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
The showdown with Jakob Poeltl lands in the 90th percentile with the opposing team's starting Cs converting a whopping 46.2% of their 3-point shots this year.
The 7th-fastest pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Grizzlies.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 8th-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to more plays for the Grizzlies.
Over the last 25 games, opposing clubs have secured 9.7 offensive boards per game (5th-lowest in the league) against the Toronto Raptors (diminishing possessions that could otherwise generate bonus chances for offense).

Favors Under

In contrast to last season's 59.9% rate, Xavier Tillman's field goal prowess has tailed off this season to 35.5%.
This matchup is a positive one for shots from the field; opposing clubs have shot for the 2nd-highest Field Goal% in the league over the last 10 games when the Raptors are on the road (51.1%).
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Xavier Tillman has successfully made a measly 36.9% of his free throw attempts this season, quite a bit lower than his 54.4 rate last season.

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