Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 12/29/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

LA Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies · Dec 29, 2023

Updated Dec 30, 2023 3:34 AM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has converted 41.7% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games, 8.7% higher than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year.
When it comes to three-point attempts, the 6th-most aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Grizzlies.
This year when they are away from home, their opposition has put up 108.9 points per game (6th-lowest in the league) vs. the Clippers, creating a difficult matchup for offensive production.
The 9th-fastest pace visiting team in the league this year has been the Grizzlies.
The matchup against the Clippers may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing clubs have attempted a lowly 21.4 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Clippers are at home (3rd-least in the NBA).

Favors Under

The LA Clippers have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Grizzlies.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce further chances for scoring and assists, but the Memphis Grizzlies rank 6thworst in in the NBA away from home with just 9.8 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
The Clippers have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Xavier Tillman has converted just 36.9% of his free throw attempts this year, a significant dropoff from his 54.4 mark last year.
Xavier Tillman will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to decrease stat production in all stat categories.