Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 10/25/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans · Oct 25, 2023

Updated Oct 25, 2023 10:39 PM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+102/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to his full-season clip of core.FORMAT(RATE2,1), Xavier Tillman's playing time has surged by core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1) over the last 5 games minutes per game.
This year when they are on the road, the opposition's starting Cs have averaged 64.5% on field goals (29th-highest in the league) vs. the Pelicans, resulting in a positive matchup.
The Grizzlies have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the NBA this year.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are playing at home, opposing teams have secured 9.8 offensive rebounds per game (7th-fewest in the league) vs. the Pelicans (minimizing possessions that could otherwise bring about more chances for offense).

Favors Under

Xavier Tillman has sunk a measly 57.2% of his field goal attempts this season, quite a bit less than his 46.0 rate last season.
Xavier Tillman has tallied 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1) more than he's tallied over the course of the year on the road.
In terms of threes, the Grizzlies's unimpressive 35.2% rate of drained threes when playing at home places 4th-lowest in the league this year.
In comparison to last year's 66.8% rate, Xavier Tillman's free-throw proficiency has diminished this year to 43.9%.
The matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted just 2.9 free throws per game this year (11th-least in the league).