Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 4/16/2023

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Xavier Tillman

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Lakers · Apr 16, 2023

Updated Apr 16, 2023 6:36 PM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has successfully made 5.6 baskets per game over the last 5 games at home, 2.3 higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year while at home.
Xavier Tillman has averaged 25.3 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 6.4 more than he's averaged overall this season.
The matchup against Los Angeles is a favorable one; when the Lakers are on the road, they have allowed the 28th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting Cs this year (15.4).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home.
The Lakers have played at the 3rd-speediest pace in the league this year, which ought to raise opportunities for the Grizzlies.

Favors Under

The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 2nd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while on their home court this year.
The Lakers have given up the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.0) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Xavier Tillman has made 54.8% of his foul shot attempts this year, placing him in the 7th percentile among all players in the league.
The matchup vs. the Lakers may be a difficult one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a lowly 1.8 free throws per game over the last 25 games (12th-least in the league).

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