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Xavier Tillman

Xavier Tillman Points
Player Prop - 3/15/2023

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Xavier Tillman has made 84.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 23.3% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year while playing on the road.

Xavier Tillman has made 100.0% of his three-point shots over the last 5 games, 77.9% higher than he's made from downtown overall this year.

The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games.

The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

The Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Xavier Tillman has averaged 13.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the least-used players in the league: 24th percentile.

The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 8th-lowest scoring offense in the league away from their home court this year when it comes to threes.

The matchup against the Heat is a hard one; they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting Cs this year (10.0).

The matchup vs. Bam Adebayo is a difficult one for treys; when guarding opposing starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a mere 23.0% of their 3-pointers (7th percentile).

The Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Grizzlies.

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