Xavier Tillman Points - Player Prop Bet 2/12/2023

NBA · Player Props

Xavier Tillman

F · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Boston Celtics vs Memphis Grizzlies · Feb 12, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Xavier Tillman Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Xavier Tillman has converted 50.0% of his 3-point shots over the last 10 games on the road, 12.5% more than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season away from home.
Xavier Tillman has been called for 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the least-whistled players in the league (19th percentile).
The matchup against Robert Williams III is a strong one for treys; when Williams III is playing at home opposing starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a colossal 45.8% of their 3-pointers (100th percentile).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while playing on the road this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 7th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games as it relates to attempts from downtown.
The Celtics have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to decrease possessions for the Grizzlies.
Xavier Tillman has successfully made just 50.1% of his foul shot attempts this season, a sizeable decrease from his 72.4 mark last season.
The matchup vs. Robert Williams III is a difficult one for getting to the foul line; when Williams III is on his home court and squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted just 2.6 free throws per game (7th percentile).
Xavier Tillman will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually lowers stat production across the board.