Wendell Carter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Wendell Carter Jr.

C-F · Orlando Magic

Points

Washington Wizards vs Orlando Magic · Mar 31, 2023

Updated Apr 1, 2023 2:53 AM EST

Analysis

Wendell Carter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Wendell Carter Jr. has attempted 6.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games away from home, 1.7 higher than he's attempted in all games this year on the road.
Wendell Carter Jr. has been on the court for 29.5 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 77th percentile.
The matchup against the Wizards is a strong one; they have allowed the 28th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting Cs this year (15.8).
The Orlando Magic have played at the 3rd-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games away from home.
The Orlando Magic rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Wendell Carter Jr. has been called for 2.8 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the league (91st percentile).
The Orlando Magic rank as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the league while on the road this year.
The Wizards have played at the 5th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games on their home court, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Magic.
The Wizards have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Wendell Carter Jr. will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court usually worsens stat production across the board.