Walker Kessler Points - Player Prop Bet 12/30/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Walker Kessler

C · Utah Jazz

Points

Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 30, 2024

Updated Dec 30, 2024 10:24 PM EST

Analysis

Walker Kessler Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Walker Kessler has sunk 6.6 baskets per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.8 higher than he's sunk overall this year with the home court advantage.
The Utah Jazz will likely get a boost in opportunities in this game from facing the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play road offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Jazz rank 2nd-best in in the league as the home team with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
The number of fouls drawn by other starting Cs vs. Nikola Jokic has been quite high (3.6 foul shots per game) when facing other starting Cs this year (77th percentile).
Walker Kessler is expected to see an increase in efficiency in all stat categories considering holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

When it comes to offense, the Jazz's feeble 107.3 points per game while on their home court rates 4th-lowest in the league this year.
The number of 3-pointers attempted against Nikola Jokic has been quite low (1.0 per game) when squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year (3rd percentile).
The Utah Jazz have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home.
In contrast to last year's 62.0% mark, Walker Kessler's free-throw ability has decreased this year to 45.0%.