Walker Kessler Points - Player Prop Bet 12/13/2024

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NBA · Player Props

Walker Kessler

C · Utah Jazz

Points

Utah Jazz vs Phoenix Suns · Dec 13, 2024

Updated Dec 13, 2024 10:25 PM EST

Analysis

Walker Kessler Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Walker Kessler rates in the 97th percentile for scoring efficiency on his home court with a superb 75.7% rate this year.
The matchup against Jusuf Nurkic is a good one; he has given up a whopping 18.4 points per game without the home court advantage when facing fellow starting Cs this year (96th percentile).
The Jazz rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Jusuf Nurkic is a favorable one for getting to the free-throw line; when Nurkic is on the visiting team other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a colossal 5.9 foul shots per game (100th percentile).
Walker Kessler will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city generally boosts player production for all stats.

Favors Under

The Jazz have been the lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games while on their home court.
The 7th-most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Jazz.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA while traveling this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Utah Jazz.
Walker Kessler has made a lowly 51.3% of his free throw attempts this season, significantly lower than his 62.0 rate last season.