Walker Kessler Points - Player Prop Bet 11/26/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Walker Kessler

C · Utah Jazz

Points

Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs · Nov 26, 2024

Updated Nov 26, 2024 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Walker Kessler Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Walker Kessler comes in at the 96th percentile for scoring proficiency playing at home with a great 69.6% rate this year.
The 10th-most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Utah Jazz.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 10th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Jazz.
The Jazz check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Walker Kessler should see a spike in performance for all stats as a result of enjoying the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Walker Kessler has averaged 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's averaged overall this year.
The Jazz rank as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the league while at home this year.
The number of treys attempted against Victor Wembanyama has been remarkably low (0.8 per game) when away from his home court and guarding opposing starting Cs this year (4th percentile).
Walker Kessler has converted a measly 41.1% of his free throws this year, significantly lower than his 62.0 rate last year.
The showdown with Victor Wembanyama as it relates to getting to the free-throw line registers in the 11th percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs attempting a mere 2.4 foul shots per game this year.