Victor Wembanyama Points - Player Prop Bet 1/4/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Victor Wembanyama

F-C · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Milwaukee Bucks · Jan 4, 2024

Updated Jan 4, 2024 10:28 PM EST

Analysis

Victor Wembanyama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Victor Wembanyama has attempted 15.8 shots from the field per game this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile out of all players in the league.
Victor Wembanyama has converted 45.2% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 13.4% more than he's converted from three in all games this year playing at home.
The Spurs have been the 4th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing at home with respect to shot attempts from downtown.
Over the last 25 games, opposing clubs have averaged 31.6% on threes (worst in the NBA) against the Milwaukee Bucks, branding this as a hard matchup.
The matchup against Brook Lopez is a favorable one for shot attempts from the field; when matched up against other starting Cs this year, they have attempted an enormous 11.6 shots made from the field per game (100th percentile).

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in further chances for scoring and assists, but the Spurs grade out 7thworst in in the league with just 9.4 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.
This year, opposing squads have secured 11.6 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Milwaukee Bucks (retaining possessions that can lead to added opportunities for offense).
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Brook Lopez has been quite low this year (2.7 foul shots per game: 7th percentile).