Tyler Herro Points - Player Prop Bet 3/21/2026

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NBA · Player Props

Tyler Herro

G · Miami Heat

Points

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat · Mar 21, 2026

Updated Mar 21, 2026 11:58 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-116/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The quickest tempo offense in the NBA this year has been the Heat.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, and the Heat rank 3rd-best in in the NBA with 13.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.
The matchup vs. Houston may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted an enormous 4.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Rockets have the home court advantage (4th-most in the league).

Favors Under

The Heat rank as the 3rd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup against Houston is a challenging one for 3-pointers; when the Houston Rockets are at home, the opposition's starting SGs have compiled the lowest three rate in the league this year (24.8%).
The Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-most lethargic tempo offense in the league this year (the Houston Rockets).