Tyler Herro Points - Player Prop Bet 5/1/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Tyler Herro

G · Miami Heat

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 1, 2024

Updated May 1, 2024 11:37 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tyler Herro has attempted 10.8 treys per game over the last 5 games on the road, 2.6 higher than he's attempted in all games this season on the road.
Tyler Herro has averaged 38.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games on the road, 4.4 higher than he's averaged in all games this year on the road.
As it relates to shot attempts from downtown, the 7th-most aggressive offense in the NBA as the away team over the last 5 games has been the Miami Heat.
The matchup against Boston is a favorable one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Celtics are on their home court, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged the 4th-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.8).
Tyler Herro has sunk 3.5 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.2 higher than he's sunk over the course of the year.

Favors Under

The most lethargic tempo road offense in the NBA this year has been the Heat.
The Miami Heat are expected to experience a decrease in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Boston Celtics).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 2ndworst in in the league with just 7.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. Boston may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a measly 1.4 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Boston Celtics are on their home court (least in the league).
Tyler Herro ought to experience a decrease in efficiency across the board in light of being on the road in this game.