Tyler Herro Points - Player Prop Bet 12/18/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Tyler Herro

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 18, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 7:53 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-128/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tyler Herro has attempted 19.0 shots from the field per game this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Out of all players in the NBA, Tyler Herro registers in the 97th percentile for 3-pointers sunk, posting 3.1 per game this year.
Among all players in the NBA, Tyler Herro measures in the 93rd percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 33.5 minutes per game this year.
The Heat rank as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.
This year when they are on their home court, opposing teams have come down with 9.3 offensive boards per game (5th-fewest in the NBA) against the Timberwolves (reducing possessions that could otherwise spark more opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Tyler Herro has averaged 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the league when it comes to technicals (93rd percentile).
This year, opposing starting PGs have averaged 39.8% on shots from the field (15th-worst in the NBA) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, making this a tough matchup.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games.
The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage, which should lead to fewer plays for the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).