Tyler Herro Points - Player Prop Bet 11/1/2023

NBA · Player Props

Tyler Herro

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets · Nov 1, 2023

Updated Nov 1, 2023 11:37 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Herro Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Tyler Herro measures in the 93rd percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, posting 7.3 per game since the start of last season.
Tyler Herro has tallied 33.9 minutes per game without the home court advantage since the start of last season, placing him in the 86th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The matchup against Brooklyn is a positive one; when the Brooklyn Nets are away from home, they have allowed the 27th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs since the start of last season (18.3).
Out of all players in the NBA, Tyler Herro rates in the 99th percentile for free-throw ability when playing on the road with a a superb 93.4% rate since the start of last season.
The matchup vs. Brooklyn is a good one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted a monstrous 3.4 free throws per game since the start of last season when the Nets are away from home (27th-most in the league).

Favors Under

The Heat have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA while at home this year.
The {OPP_TEAM} will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from competing against the 7th-most sluggish tempo visiting offense in the league since the start of last season (the Brooklyn Nets).
The Miami Heat have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Since the start of last season when they are on the road, opposing squads have secured 11.5 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Brooklyn Nets (maintaining possessions that can bring about extra chances for offense).