Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 1/21/2025

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Terry Rozier

NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Portland Trail Blazers · Jan 21, 2025

Updated Jan 22, 2025 12:24 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Terry Rozier has converted 48.9% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 8.7% more than he's sunk overall this season.
Terry Rozier has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 11.7% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.
As a team, the Miami Heat have been terrific at getting to the charity stripe while at home: 7th-best in the NBA this year, drawing 22.6 foul shots per game.
Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 6.5 foul shots per game (2nd-most in the league) against the Trail Blazers, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.
Terry Rozier will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home tends to improve player production across the board.

Favors Under

In comparison to last year's 33.5 rate, Terry Rozier's playing time has dropped this year to 28.7 minutes per game.
This year, the other team's starting PGs have shot 29.8% on 3-pointers (3rd-worst in the NBA) against the Portland Trail Blazers, resulting in a tough matchup.
The 4th-most sluggish pace home offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 6th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 15 games on the road, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Miami Heat.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 1stworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.3 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

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