Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 1/6/2025

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Terry Rozier

NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Miami Heat · Jan 6, 2025

Updated Jan 7, 2025 4:00 AM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Heat check in as the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.
The matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings is a good one; they have allowed the 2nd-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs this year (18.1).
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Heat.
Among all players in the league, Terry Rozier slots into the 79th percentile for foul-shot prowess with an excellent 86.2% rate this year.
This year, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 4.7 free throws per game (most in the NBA) against the Kings, easily managing to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Terry Rozier has successfully made 38.2% of his field goal attempts on the road this year, placing him in the 23rd percentile among all players in the NBA.
The Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 21 games when they are the visiting team, opposing clubs have nabbed 10.2 offensive boards per game (30th-most in the league) against the Sacramento Kings (lengthening possessions that can create bonus chances for offense).
Terry Rozier should suffer a drop-off in output for all stats in light of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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