Terry Rozier Points - Player Prop Bet 2/4/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Terry Rozier

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs LA Clippers · Feb 4, 2024

Updated Feb 4, 2024 11:08 PM EST

Analysis

Terry Rozier Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Terry Rozier has missed 4.7 treys per game this season, significantly lower than his 5.4 mark last season.
Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier slots into the 82nd percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 31.2 minutes per game while on his home court this year.
The Miami Heat rank as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games when playing at home.
The matchup against Los Angeles is a favorable one for field goals; when the LA Clippers are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PGs have shot for the 24th-highest FG% in the NBA this year (45.6%).
Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 4.8 foul shots per game (22nd-highest in the league) vs. the Clippers, finding it easy to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Terry Rozier has converted 32.3% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games at home, 6.5% lower than he's sunk over the course of the season on his home court.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The LA Clippers have played at the 4th-most sluggish tempo in the NBA without the home court advantage this year, which ought to decrease possessions for the Miami Heat.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate added chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 6thworst in in the league with only 9.6 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have secured 13.8 offensive rebounds per game (most in the league) against the LA Clippers (lengthening possessions that can spark bonus chances for offense).