Talen Horton-Tucker Points - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Talen Horton-Tucker

G · Utah Jazz

Points

Miami Heat vs Utah Jazz · Mar 13, 2023

Updated Mar 13, 2023 10:21 PM EST

Analysis

Talen Horton-Tucker Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Talen Horton-Tucker has scored 15.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 5.9 more than he's scored over the course of the year.
The Utah Jazz rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Talen Horton-Tucker has sunk 4.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 2.5 higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year away from his home court.
The matchup vs. the Heat may be a favorable one for getting to the free throw line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a colossal 4.6 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (25th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Talen Horton-Tucker has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game away from home this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The Utah Jazz rank as the least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 10 games.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a hard one for shots from the field; opposing starting PGs have averaged the 15th-least shots made from the field per game in the league this year (5.4).
The Utah Jazz have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace in the NBA this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Jazz.