Stephen Curry Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

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Stephen Curry

NBA · Player Props

Stephen Curry

G · Golden State Warriors

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 2:58 AM EST

Analysis

Stephen Curry Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Stephen Curry has compiled 27.9 points per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league by this metric: 98th percentile.
Among all players in the NBA, Stephen Curry places in the 100th percentile for three-point attempts, posting 11.6 per game this year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Stephen Curry measures in the 87th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 33.5 minutes per game this year.
The matchup against the Miami Heat is a positive one; they have allowed the 27th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).
The Golden State Warriors have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Stephen Curry has tallied 0.4 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.3 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year.
As it relates to offense, the Golden State Warriors's unimpressive 45.3% field goal percentage as the home team comes in as the 3rd-weakest in the NBA this year.
The 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Warriors.
The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home stadium, which should decrease possessions for the Warriors.

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