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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points
Player Prop - 12/29/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes in at the 99th percentile, registering a monstrous 31.1 points per game this year.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 34.7 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 94th percentile.

The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games.

The matchup vs. Denver is a positive one; when the Denver Nuggets are on their home court, they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting SGs over the last 5 games (20.4).

The Thunder have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 10 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 2nd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).

Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 1stworst in in the league with just 8.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.

The Denver Nuggets have given up the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (12.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has made a mere 7.5 free throws per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 9.8 mark last season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage generally decreases stat production in all facets of the game.

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