Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points - Player Prop Bet 4/6/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Apr 6, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has converted a terrific 10.4 baskets per game this year, quite a bit more than his 8.5 mark last year.
The matchup against the Jazz is a good one; they have allowed the 29th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting SGs this year (19.8).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Jazz have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should boost opportunities for the Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has attempted a mere 2.4 shots from downtown per game this year, quite a bit lower than his 5.3 rate last year.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has accumulated 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's accumulated overall this season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 3rd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 25 games.
While on their home court, the Jazz have given up the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (11.9) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing while traveling tends to lowers player performance in all stat categories.