Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Assists - Player Prop Bet 1/20/2024

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

NBA · Player Props

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Assists

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 20, 2024

Updated Jan 21, 2024 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-142/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged a whopping 6.3 assists per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 5.4 assists per game last year.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on the court for 34.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 93rd percentile.
The 8th-quickest pace offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Thunder.

Favors Under

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been called for 3.5 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.9 higher than he's been called for in all games this year.
The Thunder will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities today from competing against the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 1stworst in in the league with a mere 8.3 offensive boards per game this year.
While playing at home, the Minnesota Timberwolves have allowed the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling tends to decrease player production in all facets of the game.

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