Peyton Watson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/23/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Peyton Watson

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 23, 2025

Updated Dec 23, 2025 10:19 PM EST

Analysis

Peyton Watson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-104/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Peyton Watson has registered 14.5 points per game over the last 15 games, 3.6 higher than he's registered in all games this year.
The Denver Nuggets have been the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks is a positive one for shots from the field; the opposition's starting PFs have tallied the most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (16.0).
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Nuggets.

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-least up-tempo pace in the league without the home court advantage this year.
Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about added chances for scoring and assists, but the Nuggets grade out 1stworst in in the league with only 8.2 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. Dallas is a hard one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.5 free throws per game this year when the Dallas Mavericks are on their home court (3rd-least in the NBA).