Peyton Watson Points - Player Prop Bet 4/6/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Peyton Watson

G · Denver Nuggets

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets · Apr 6, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 1:56 AM EST

Analysis

Peyton Watson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Peyton Watson has made 65.7% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 14.1% more than he's converted in all games this year.
Peyton Watson has made 63.9% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games, 9.1% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year.
Peyton Watson has committed 0.4 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the least foul-prone players in the league (2nd percentile).
The matchup against Phoenix is a favorable one for threes; when the Suns are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PFs have shot for the 24th-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (36.7%).
The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Peyton Watson has played 6.4 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 6th percentile -- seeing the court far less than most players in the NBA.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games away from their home court.
The Suns have played at the 9th-slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Nuggets.
On their home court, the Suns have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).