Paul Reed Points - Player Prop Bet 2/22/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Paul Reed

F · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks · Feb 22, 2024

Updated Feb 22, 2024 10:45 PM EST

Analysis

Paul Reed Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Paul Reed has sunk 5.4 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 2.5 higher than he's converted overall this season.
Paul Reed has averaged 30.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 12.9 more than he's averaged overall this year.
The faceoff with Isaiah Hartenstein rates in the 97th percentile with the opposition's starting Cs scoring an enormous 47.1% of their shots from downtown this year when they are playing at home.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
This year, their opposition has come down with 9.9 offensive rebounds per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the New York Knicks (losing possessions that could otherwise create extra chances for offense).

Favors Under

Paul Reed has accumulated 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's accumulated over the course of the season.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been the least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games as it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc.
Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have shot 54.6% on shots from the field (highest in the NBA) against the Knicks, identifying this as a good matchup.
The New York Knicks have played at the slowest tempo in the league over the last 15 games, which should decrease possessions for the 76ers.
The matchup against Isaiah Hartenstein is a tough one for drawing fouls; when Hartenstein is away from his home court and facing fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a measly 2.9 free throws per game (13th percentile).