Paul George Points - Player Prop Bet 2/26/2023

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Paul George

NBA · Player Props

Paul George

F · LA Clippers

Points

Denver Nuggets vs LA Clippers · Feb 26, 2023

Updated Feb 27, 2023 1:31 AM EST

Analysis

Paul George Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-127/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Paul George has attempted 20.6 shots per game this year, ranking in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Paul George has successfully made 4.2 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's converted over the course of the year.
Paul George has averaged 34.4 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 95th percentile.
The LA Clippers rank as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Clippers.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a difficult one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs since the start of last season (14.0).
The LA Clippers have played at the 9th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games away from their home court.
The LA Clippers check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a challenging one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting SGs have attempted a measly 2.0 free throws per game since the start of last season (15th-least in the NBA).
Paul George will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium generally reduces player performance for all stats.

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