Patrick Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 1/27/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Patrick Williams

F · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 27, 2025

Updated Jan 27, 2025 9:30 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In terms of shooting, the Bulls's excellent 116.4 points per game ranks 7th-highest in the NBA this year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PFs have shot 44.8% on threes (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, branding this as a favorable matchup.
The Bulls have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the league this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most up-tempo tempo in the league this year, which ought to increase opportunities for the Bulls.
The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting PFs against Michael Porter Jr. has been remarkably high this year (3.4 foul shot attempts per game when they are on their home court: 90th percentile).

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Patrick Williams registers in the 14th percentile for scoring ability playing at home with a feeble 34.3% rate this year.
The showdown with Michael Porter Jr. registers in the 23rd percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting PFs draining just 45.4% of their shots from the field this year when they are playing at home.
The Bulls check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).