Patrick Williams Points - Player Prop Bet 11/15/2023

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Patrick Williams

NBA · Player Props

Patrick Williams

F · Chicago Bulls

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Orlando Magic · Nov 15, 2023

Updated Nov 16, 2023 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Williams Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-130/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bulls rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 6 games with the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Without the home court advantage, the Magic have given up the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (8.8) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Patrick Williams has attempted 2.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Patrick Williams will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on your home court tends to raise player production across the board.

Favors Under

Patrick Williams has successfully made just 2.1 baskets per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 3.8 mark last season.
Patrick Williams has tallied just 22.6 minutes per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 27.7 minutes per game last season.
The Bulls have been the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA as the visting team this year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have averaged 37.6% on three-pointers (9th-best in the league) against the Orlando Magic, identifying this as a positive matchup.
The matchup vs. the Orlando Magic is a hard one; they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting SFs this year (11.6).

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