Onyeka Okongwu Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Onyeka Okongwu

NBA · Player Props

Onyeka Okongwu

F-C · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:43 AM EST

Analysis

Onyeka Okongwu Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 2nd-fastest pace visiting team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Atlanta Hawks.
The Atlanta Hawks have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the home team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are at home, opposing squads have captured 9.9 offensive rebounds per game (7th-fewest in the league) vs. the Nuggets (lessening possessions that could otherwise create added chances for offense).
Onyeka Okongwu has made a terrific 100.0% of his foul shot attempts this year, significantly more than his 73.2 mark last year.
Onyeka Okongwu should see an increase in output in all stat categories considering having the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 64.9% rate, Onyeka Okongwu's shooting performance has regressed this year to 56.0%.
Among all players in the NBA, Onyeka Okongwu lands in the 82nd percentile for personal fouls, putting up an enormous 2.7 fouls per game this year.
This matchup is a favorable one for three-point shots; the other team has posted the 6th-highest three percentage in the NBA over the last 15 games at home (38.3%).
The Hawks are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 5th-most lethargic pace away offense in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
This matchup may be a good one for getting to the foul line; when the Nuggets are the visiting squad, opposing teams have attempted a massive 25.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (6th-most in the NBA).

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