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Obi Toppin

Obi Toppin Points
Player Prop - 12/2/2023

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

Obi Toppin Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Obi Toppin has successfully made a whopping 58.5% of his shots from the field this season, quite a bit higher than his 42.0 rate last season.

With respect to offense, the Indiana Pacers's superb 127.9 points per game when playing away from home ranks highest in the league this year.

The matchup vs. Miami is a favorable one; when the Miami Heat are at home, they have given up the 22nd-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PFs this year (20.1).

The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest pace in the league when playing at home this year.

The Pacers are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from facing the 9th-fastest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA as the away team with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Obi Toppin has converted a measly 60.0% of his free throw attempts this season, quite a bit lower than his 78.4 mark last season.

This year when they are at home, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.2 foul shots per game (8th-lowest in the league) against the Heat, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

Obi Toppin will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces player performance for all stats.

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