Obi Toppin Points - Player Prop Bet 11/9/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Obi Toppin

F · Indiana Pacers

Points

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 9, 2023

Updated Nov 9, 2023 7:02 PM EST

Analysis

Obi Toppin Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last year's 42.0% mark, Obi Toppin's scoring effectiveness has spiked this year to 53.3%.
The Indiana Pacers have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the league as the home team this year.
The {OPP_TEAM} are expected to see a rise in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 6th-quickest tempo team in the league this year (the Bucks).
The Indiana Pacers rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
Obi Toppin will enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city generally boosts player performance for all stats.

Favors Under

Obi Toppin has successfully made just 15.4% of his three-point attempts this season, significantly less than his 31.0 rate last season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Obi Toppin rates in the 76th percentile for technical fouls, posting a massive 0.0 fouls per game this year.
Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 41.7% on field goals (15th-worst in the league) against the Bucks, labeling this as a tough matchup.
Since the start of last season when they are the visiting team, opposing teams have grabbed 11.0 offensive rebounds per game (7th-highest in the league) against the Bucks (preserving possessions that can spark additional opportunities for offense).
As a team, the Indiana Pacers have been bad at getting to the foul line playing at home: 3rd-worst in the NBA this year, averaging a lowly 18.6 foul shot attempts per game.