Nikola Jokic Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 2/29/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat · Feb 29, 2024

Updated Feb 29, 2024 10:17 PM EST

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-115/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has totaled 9.4 defensive rebounds per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league by this metric: 100th percentile.
Out of all players in the NBA, Nikola Jokic lands in the 91st percentile for playing time, posting a massive 33.8 minutes per game this year.
The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
The Miami Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Nikola Jokic will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home generally boosts player performance in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Nikola Jokic has committed 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's committed overall this season.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest tempo in the league this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Denver Nuggets.