Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/29/2024

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Mar 29, 2024

Updated Mar 30, 2024 1:02 AM EST

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has successfully made 11.6 field goals per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.8 more than he's put through the net over the course of the year while on his home court.
Nikola Jokic has averaged 34.5 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 95th percentile.
The showdown with Rudy Gobert lands in just the 90th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs hitting a colossal 0.8 shots from downtown per game this year.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets grade out 3rd-best in in the NBA with 12.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Among all players in the league, Nikola Jokic places in the 95th percentile for getting to the free-throw line, totaling an enormous 5.5 free throw attempts per game this year.

Favors Under

The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA this year.
The Nuggets are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 4th-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
As it relates to getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets's lackluster 20.0 free throws per game comes in as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.

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