Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 2/14/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings · Feb 14, 2024

Updated Feb 15, 2024 4:08 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has successfully made 68.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games at home, 6.3% more than he's made over the course of the year when playing at home.
Among all players in the NBA, Nikola Jokic registers in the 77th percentile for three-point efficiency while at home with a an impressive 40.5% rate this year.
Nikola Jokic has played 33.7 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 91st percentile.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 2nd-most efficient shooting team in the NBA playing at home this year.
The Kings have played at the 2nd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which should increase possessions for the Nuggets.

Favors Under

Over the last 5 games, the other team has shot 53.2% on shot attempts from the field (highest in the NBA) against the Kings, creating a positive matchup.
The matchup vs. Domantas Sabonis is a hard one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when matched up against fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a mere 1.0 3-pointers per game (3rd percentile).
The slowest pace home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Denver Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Domantas Sabonis is a difficult one for getting to the foul line; when Sabonis is on the road and facing opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a mere 2.1 free throws per game (3rd percentile).